KTUU.com | Alaska's news and information source | New poll shows Palin would trail Murkowski big in a Senate race

New poll shows Palin would trail Murkowski big in a Senate race

by Mike Ross
Monday, January 5, 2009

ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- Even with the last election barely two months in the rearview mirror, some in the national media have speculated that Gov. Sarah Palin might make a run for the U.S. Senate in 2010 as a prelude to running for president in 2012.

But a new poll out Monday shows Palin would have a tough time if she decides to take on Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Pollster Dave Dittman just finished a statewide survey on a possible Palin-versus-Murkowski matchup - and Murkowski beats Palin, at least in this poll, hands down.

Murkowski garnered 57 percent to Palin's 33 percent; 9 percent said they were not sure.

And given the senator's popularity, Dittman says Palin would not be wise to challenge Murkowski.

"And I think there would be a feeling, too, of overreaching -- going too far, too aggressive, too much too soon -- if Sarah decided to run for Senate," Dittman said. "When you've already got someone there with seniority, who most people think is doing a good job, I think it would be a huge mistake."

Murkowski sent what many viewed as a veiled warning to Palin a few weeks ago, telling politico.com, "I can guarantee it would be a very tough election ... If she wants to be president, I don't think the way to the presidency is a short stop in the United States Senate."

The governor's press secretary, Bill McAllister, says Palin has never indicated she's thinking about running against Murkowski.

"It's unfortunate that we keep talking about this rivalry that doesn't exist," he said. "She has not said, and I don't think needs to say, that she's going to rule something out in terms of her political plans in the future. But she's very focused on being governor now, does not see herself as a rival to Senator Murkowski."

And McAllister points to a newspaper opinion piece Murkowski and Palin co-wrote recently, stating they are not rivals.

"There's no reason to think that she's vying for a Senate seat," McAllister said, "I mean, in politics I suppose you never know what's going to happen."

And in the world of politics, that is often the key question.

A poll commissioned last month by the Web site dailykos.com showed Palin beating Murkowski 55 to 31 percent, although local pollster Dittman says he has concerns about the methods used to arrive at those numbers.

Contact Mike Ross at mross@ktuu.com