Chris Dufresne / On College Football

Law of probability may catch up to some college football unbeatens

Twenty-six major-division teams enter the weekend with no losses, but that number could shrink considerably on Saturday.

The only thing more endangered than being Arkansas' head coach is being undefeated.

Stanford found out Thursday night what others will discover Saturday.

The Cardinal sin of losing at Washington leaves 26 unbeatens as the season winds toward an Agatha Christie finish of "And then there was none, one, two or (God forbid) three."

Conference USA and the Mountain West and Sun Belt conferences have no unscathed schools and are eliminated from the title pool — but you knew that already.

The Atlantic Coast and Mid-American each cling to one no-loss representative. The difference is No. 4 Florida State has a chance to win the national title while Ohio has a chance to win the MAC.

The Big 12 leads the way with seven undefeated teams, followed by the Southeastern (six), Big East (three), Big Ten (three), Pac-12 (two) and Western Athletic (two).

Five teams with bye weeks — Notre Dame, Rutgers, Kansas State, Florida and Mississippi State — can relax for now.

Two Saturday matchups are guaranteed to produce a first loss: Baylor at West Virginia and Texas Tech at Iowa State. Las Vegas suggests first losses will be hung on Baylor and Iowa State.

We examine the threat levels elsewhere:

Zero

Towson at No. 3 Louisiana State (4-0): LSU survived a scare in last week's 12-10 win over Auburn, but this game won't produce so much as a "boo." If Towson thought losing to William & Mary was tough, wait until it gets a load of Baton & Rouge. LSU only loses style points if the mighty Tigers let the not-so-mighty Tigers hang around longer than the experts deem appropriate.

Mississippi at No. 1 Alabama (4-0): Ole Miss is 0-8 against top-ranked opponents and hasn't defeated Alabama since 2003. Alabama's defense has allowed 21 points in four games and Coach Nick Saban isn't happy about any one of them.

Oregon (4-0) at Washington State: Oregon is coming off a 49-0 win over Arizona. Washington State lost at home to Colorado, which had been considered among the worst teams in major college football. This game is at "neutral" site in Seattle, but look for Oregon to quickly stick the gear shift into "drive."

Low

• Ohio (4-0) at Massachusetts: It's nice the New England Patriots are letting UMass borrow Gillette Stadium to transition into college football's top division, but unfortunately the winless Minutemen aren't allowed to borrow any Patriots players.

Indiana at Northwestern (4-0): Indiana isn't horrible, but we expect Northwestern to hold serve in Evanston. The Wildcats have scored wins against the SEC (Vanderbilt), Big East (Syracuse) and ACC (Boston College). How hard can the Big Ten be?

South Carolina (4-0) at Kentucky: Steve Spurrier's old school, Florida, is coming off a 38-0 win over Kentucky. Spurrier's new school has an even better defense.

• Florida State (4-0) at South Florida: There is a slight chance Florida State will be flat coming off last week's big win over Clemson. South Florida's best boast is a win at Nevada.

Louisville (4-0) at Southern Mississippi: The Cardinals struggled last week against Florida International, but the University of Brett Favre is an odorous 0-3.

Medium

la-sp-0929-college-football-saturday-20120929
NASA Photos Show Pavlof Volcano Eruption from Space » NASA Photos Show Pavlof Volcano Eruption from... Photo Gallery: Aerial Views of Yukon River Ice Jam » Photo Gallery: Aerial Views of Yukon River... 2013 Gold Nugget Triathlon » 2013 Gold Nugget Triathlon Photos: Pavlof Volcano Erupting » Photos: Pavlof Volcano Erupting Spenard Farmer's Market Kicks Off 4th Season » Spenard Farmer's Market Kicks Off 4th Season Trekkies at the museum » Trekkies at the museum Bike to Work Day 2013 » Bike to Work Day 2013 Photo Gallery: Pamyua Plays for ANHC Crowd on Mother's Day » Photo Gallery: Pamyua Plays for ANHC Crowd on... Photo Gallery: Faster Than a Falcon 5k Run » Photo Gallery: Faster Than a Falcon 5k Run Photos: 'Back to the Future' DeLorean Replica » Photos: 'Back to the Future' DeLorean Replica Photo Gallery:  Back to the Future DeLorean Visits Alaska » Photo Gallery: Back to the Future DeLorean... Photo Gallery: APD Medals of Valor and Shield Awards » Photo Gallery: APD Medals of Valor and Shield... 13th Annual Bike for Women » 13th Annual Bike for Women Great Alaska Aviation Gathering Celebrates 16 Years » Great Alaska Aviation Gathering Celebrates 16... Photo Gallery: Commissioning of the USS Anchorage » Photo Gallery: Commissioning of the USS... Photo Gallery: 22nd Annual Salmon Run 2K, 5K and 10K » Photo Gallery: 22nd Annual Salmon Run 2K,... Photo Gallery: Walk and Roll for Hope 2013 » Photo Gallery: Walk and Roll for Hope 2013 Photos: On Board The USS Anchorage » Photos: On Board The USS Anchorage NYO 2013, Day 3 (More Photos) » NYO 2013, Day 3 (More Photos) Denali Base Camp » Denali Base Camp NYO 2013: Day 3: One-Foot High Kick, Seal Hop, Alaska Native Dance Performances, and Closing Ceremonies » NYO 2013: Day 3: One-Foot High Kick, Seal... Heart Run 2013 » Heart Run 2013 Native Youth Olympics Day 2: One Hand Reach and Two Foot Kick » Native Youth Olympics Day 2: One Hand Reach... Photo Gallery: Clark Mishler's 'Portrait Alaska' » Photo Gallery: Clark Mishler's 'Portrait... Photos: NYO 2013: Day 1 » Photos: NYO 2013: Day 1 Unalakleet Clean Water Struggle » Unalakleet Clean Water Struggle Slush Cup 2013 (part 2) » Slush Cup 2013 (part 2) Slush Cup 2013 (Part 1) » Slush Cup 2013 (Part 1) Newborn Reindeer Calves at the Palmer Reindeer Farm » Newborn Reindeer Calves at the Palmer... Piuraagiaqta 2013: Barrow's Spring Festival » Piuraagiaqta 2013: Barrow's Spring Festival Giant Pacific Octopus Eggs Hatching » Giant Pacific Octopus Eggs Hatching 2013 Arctic Man » 2013 Arctic Man 20th Alaska Custom Cycle Show » 20th Alaska Custom Cycle Show Hand Counting Write-In Votes: Ernie Hall vs. Nick Moe » Hand Counting Write-In Votes: Ernie Hall vs.... Food Truck Carnival in Spenard » Food Truck Carnival in Spenard Rage City Rollergirls » Rage City Rollergirls Photos: Deadly Shooting in Fairview, Anchorage Police Officers Involved » Photos: Deadly Shooting in Fairview,... Photos: 2013 Municipal Election » Photos: 2013 Municipal Election Photo Gallery: Helo-1 and Crash Victims » Photo Gallery: Helo-1 and Crash Victims Ida'ina Gathering 2013 at Dena'ina Center » Ida'ina Gathering 2013 at Dena'ina Center The 2013 Sportsman Show » The 2013 Sportsman Show Photo Gallery: 2013 'Choose Respect' March in Anchorage » Photo Gallery: 2013 'Choose Respect' March in... Photo Gallery: Food Bank of Alaska's Canstruction 2013 » Photo Gallery: Food Bank of Alaska's... Funeral Service for Fallen VPSO Thomas Madole Held in Anchorage » Funeral Service for Fallen VPSO Thomas Madole... Kali, Orphaned Polar Bear Cub, at Alaska Zoo » Kali, Orphaned Polar Bear Cub, at Alaska Zoo Photo Gallery: Alaska State Troopers Armored Vehicles » Photo Gallery: Alaska State Troopers... World Baseball Classic: Puerto Rico vs. Dominican Republic » World Baseball Classic: Puerto Rico vs.... Photo Gallery: Kulluk Loading Aboard Xiang Rui Kou » Photo Gallery: Kulluk Loading Aboard Xiang... Photo Gallery: Recovered Polar Bear Cub Delivered to Alaska Zoo » Photo Gallery: Recovered Polar Bear Cub... Museum in Mountain View Name Changed » Museum in Mountain View Name Changed World Baseball Classic: Semi Final Game One: Puerto Rico v Japan » World Baseball Classic: Semi Final Game One:... Matzah Bakery » Matzah Bakery 2013 Oosik Classic Ski Race/Tour » 2013 Oosik Classic Ski Race/Tour 2013 Shamrock Shuffle » 2013 Shamrock Shuffle Pink Floyd Light Show at the Anchorage Science Museum » Pink Floyd Light Show at the Anchorage... Daytona Bike Week: National Guard SuperBike Race 1 » Daytona Bike Week: National Guard SuperBike... World Baseball Classic Round 2 Miami: USA v. Puerto Rico » World Baseball Classic Round 2 Miami: USA v.... Photos: ASD Names New Superintendent as Jim Browder Retires » Photos: ASD Names New Superintendent as Jim... World Baseball Classic: Round 2 Miami, Game One: Italy v. Dominican Republic » World Baseball Classic: Round 2 Miami, Game... Photos: Empty Bowl Project at Egan Center » Photos: Empty Bowl Project at Egan Center Photo Gallery: Moose Rescue at Alexander Creek » Photo Gallery: Moose Rescue at Alexander... Jesus Christ Superstar » Jesus Christ Superstar Iditarod Day 5: Dropped Dogs in McGrath » Iditarod Day 5: Dropped Dogs in McGrath The 41st Annual Student art exhibition » The 41st Annual Student art exhibition Photo Gallery: Rotten Matanuska Creamery Cheese » Photo Gallery: Rotten Matanuska Creamery... Anchorage Police Respond to Armed Man near O'Malley Road » Anchorage Police Respond to Armed Man near O'... Iditarod Official Start (Aerial Photos) » Iditarod Official Start (Aerial Photos) Iditarod Official Start (Pre race, Mushers and Handlers) » Iditarod Official Start (Pre race, Mushers... Iditarod Official Start (Mushers 2 - 16) » Iditarod Official Start (Mushers 2 - 16) Iditarod Official Start (Mushers 17 - 67) » Iditarod Official Start (Mushers 17 - 67) Rondy Day 9: Running of the Reindeer pt 1 » Rondy Day 9: Running of the Reindeer pt 1 Rondy Day 9: Running of the Reindeer pt 2 » Rondy Day 9: Running of the Reindeer pt 2 Iditarod Ceremonial Start » Iditarod Ceremonial Start Rondy Day 8: Scale Model Club Exhibit » Rondy Day 8: Scale Model Club Exhibit Photo Gallery: Marti Reads to the Kids » Photo Gallery: Marti Reads to the Kids