In 2007, I got the chance to visit China. Interesting place. The food was fabulous, the Great Wall awesome, the government officials self-serving, the capital city smoggy, the street vendors aggressive. And then there were the college students.
"Driven" — at least in a forum with American journalists — was my first impression of the two groups of young men and women I met, first at the University of Hawaii's East-West Center and later at Peking University in Beijing. The students exuded a sense of certainty about themselves and their country that at times seemed a bit fanatical.
Being the laid-back American that I am, I haven't thought much about those exchanges until it all came roaring back this week, thanks to a front-page story in The New York Times: "Next Made-in-China Boom: College Graduates."
For too many of us, there's a tendency to blow off a newspaper story from the other side of the world. For others, if there's no celebrity gossip or baby-mama drama, there's no interest. I, of course, can't leave out the far-right fringe that will dismiss The New York Times and almost all of its contents because of its status as the "liberal media" flagship.
But, for those individuals who recognize that today's economy is indeed global, and that our economic well-being along with the prospects for our children and grandchildren now attending college are increasingly influenced by developments in faraway places, this particular story is a big deal.
In short, China is investing roughly $250 billion a year in human capital, rivaling a similar public investment America made after World War II that led to the development of a viable white-collar middle class and the start of a vibrant U.S. economy.
Newly built college campuses, complete with labs, libraries and dormitories, are sprouting across the country. Advanced information technology, alternative energy and biotechnology are subjects the government has prioritized, although study in the so-called "soft" subjects that help graduates better understand Western culture and business is encouraged.
Meanwhile, back in America, Moody's Investors Service this week downgraded its outlook for our country's higher education sector to negative, citing declining enrollment, government spending cuts and growing doubts about the value of a college degree.
The challenges behind the downgrade are numerous. Stagnant family income, demographic changes in the number of new high school graduates, substantial cuts in state government funding and the ongoing budget gridlock in Washington, where the words "public investment" to some might as well be a slur — all point to dwindling revenue needed to sustain America's colleges and universities.
The timing couldn't be worse.
China, according to the Times article, will have nearly 195 million graduates by the end of the decade.
Sure, China's public investment has its risks. It's still a communist country that has no open market, no independent courts and no free press. Good professors are still hard to find and the teaching methods leave a lot to be desired. Developing innovation remains a challenge, and quantity isn't the same thing as quality.
Still, 195 million is a big number. If you think even a portion of all those "driven" graduates won't put pressure on future employment opportunities here and in other parts of the world, think again. Cheap goods aren't China's only export. The multinationals will snap up the more talented graduates faster than a fire sale at Walmart.
I said it shortly after returning from China nearly six years ago, and it bears repeating. China may be a communist country, but it's a rising capitalist power. From the U.S. perspective, it's still simplistic to see it as a threat, a shortsighted view that is self-defeating in the long run.
Our best move now is to make a badly needed public investment in our own human capital to rebuild the one economy all those Chinese graduates want to emulate — ours.
Douglas C. Lyons can be reached at dlyons@sunsentinel.com, or 954-356-4638. On Twitter@douginflorida.
