Unusually warm weather will stick around for the next week here in Central Indiana. You’d actually have to go all the way back to the first of last January to find the last time we hit the 50s during this month, but even then is a special case. The 55 was hit at midnight and temperatures dropped through the rest of the day. In fact the low reached late in the day was just in the 20s. The rest of the month was brutally cold with highs averaging just in the 20s.
In 2010 we also hit the 50s just one day during January. That was on the 24th and just a day before an inch of snow was recorded at the airport. The point in all of this is that 50s in January are relatively rare for Indianapolis and we may likely see 3 or more 50 degree days over the next week. The reason continues to be due to what’s happening downstream from us and more exactly what’s not happening over Greenland in the Atlantic Ocean. The normal blocking high that sets up and redirects cold air our way for the winter months just has not materialized. One way to check the intensity of this area is through the north Atlantic Oscillation. A positive reading (standard deviation) means this area is below average when it comes to pressure (Due to the lack of a Greenland High) and it continues to forecast positive numbers for the remainder of the month.
This type of set-up doesn’t mean we won’t see cold blasts of air every once in a while, but it does indicate we may struggle to see long extended periods of cold air in place over the great lakes extending into the Tennessee Valley. It generally also means colder than normal weather will set-up in places as far west as Oklahoma and Kansas. This has been the case to start this winter. For people not in love with the area’s cold season you can still hold out hope that this season is going to be a mild one. In fact the situation is such that the NWS has now flipped our winter weather forecast to a mild one instead of a slightly colder one. We still are expected to be in a slightly wetter than normal weather pattern.
For today, 60s will actually be possible. The record high is 63 degrees and we are forecasting a high of 60 degrees. Temperatures will surge on strong winds out of the southwest. The warmer weather won’t last too much longer as an overnight cold front will push through first thing on Saturday morning. As most wake-up on Saturday morning winds will be out of the northwest and highs will only hit the 40s. Most of the day we will be looking at temperatures just staying about the same with possibly an afternoon warm-up compared to the morning of 2 or 3 degrees.
Sunday’s weather will look similar to Saturdays. We will actually stay mild through Wednesday. Most of the week should be uneventful but rain chances will go up on Wednesday. On Thursday morning rain will continue before changing over to snow for the afternoon with cooling temperatures and strong winds out of the Northwest. Lake effect snow could also hit Northern Indiana.
Looking at the 8 – 15 day weather outlook the week after the upcoming week will likely be more seasonal. Highs will average in the 30s with a couple of days looking at highs in the mid to low 20s. Saturday the 21st looks especially cold right now. There doesn’t look to be any big snows on the way from the 13th through the 21st.
