It's quiet now...
It won't be later tonight.
A potent storm has strengthened as it approaches the Aleutians this morning. It will cross into Bristol Bay later this morning and stall in out through the day tomorrow.
Ahead of the low center is a very strong upper level jet which is advecting (or transporting) warm, sub-tropical air directly northward into southern Alaska. This jet and the deep moisture riding along it are the real threats for messy weather conditions beginning tonight.
Here are the main threats:
-Heavy snow is likely for the Valdez area, higher elevations of PWS and the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and west of the Susitna Valley. Accumulations of 1 to 3 feet are possible through Wednesday night.
-Strong winds will develop through channeled terrain over Southcentral, Southwest, and the southern Interior, including Denali Park and the Alaskan Range. Gusts to 70 mph are possible leading to blizzard conditions in Bethel, around Bristol Bay (before snow may mix with or change to rain tomorrow), and through Turnagain Arm, Portage Valley, and Thompson Pass.
-Chinook winds will lead to rapid rises in temperatures tonight and tomorrow in the lee of mountain ranges. For example, the high in McGrath today will be near -10. Throughout the day tomorrow, temperatures will jump 30 to 40 degrees for a high near 27.
-Light rain in downsloping wind regions and along some coastlines on top of snow or snow pack could make for dangerous driving conditions.
In Anchorage and the Valley, clouds will increase by evening. Temperatures will climb overnight. By mid-day tomorrow, Chinook winds could cause a spike in temperatures above freezing for a few hours, before falling below freezing toward evening. Combine that with the chance for light rain or snow, and road conditions could become treacherous. Please plan now to give yourself extra time for your morning and evening commute tomorrow.
This is a pattern we'll have to get used to. More warm weather systems are poised to affect southern Alaska for the next 10 days.
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