Anchorage's economic outlook slightly up for 2018, as recession expected to moderate

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(App users, to view the interactive data visualization, follow this link).

Data is sourced from the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation (AEDC) and the McDowell Group. The McDowell Group was contracted by AEDC to conduct its 10th annual Business Confidence Index (BCI) survey.

"The purpose of this survey is to assess business conditions in the Anchorage area and measure Anchorage business confidence entering 2018," reads the report.

The online survey was conducted from Nov. 9 to Dec. 22, 2017. And a total of 338 businesses and organizations completed the survey, within the Municipality of Anchorage. The highest levels of participation came from businesses involved in professional services, finance/insurance/real estate, nonprofits, engineering/architecture and media/communications.

According to the report, "Respondents were asked a series of questions regarding their organization’s business performance in 2017 compared to 2016, expectations for 2018, perceived barriers to growth, importance of various projects and issues to the Anchorage economy, and their opinion of the overall economies in Anchorage and Alaska. Most of the questions were unchanged from prior surveys, allowing some results to be benchmarked."

Lastly, a BCI model was designed to gauge expectations for Anchorage's economy, gross sales, net profits, employment and capital expenditures. Out of 100, an index above 50 indicates a "generally optimistic outlook," while below 50 indicates a "generally pessimistic outlook." An index of exactly 50 indicates an outlook that is neither pessimistic, nor optimistic.

The Anchorage Economic Development Corporation released its annual Business Confidence Index (BCI) survey, which sheds light on the municipality's business conditions and leaders' confidence entering 2018.

According to survey results, most of the indices landed around the midway point of 50 out of 100 – leaning towards an outlook that is neither pessimistic, nor optimistic. Furthermore, most indices experienced little change from the previous year.

The one exception is confidence in Anchorage's economy. Results indicate that Anchorage's Economy Index increased by 8.8 points, since 2017; however, the indicator still leans towards a slightly pessimistic outlook, at 42.5 points out of 100.

While confidence in Anchorage's economy is starting off slightly pessimistic this year, businesses expressed the highest confidence in their own gross sales and net profits.

Compared to last year's results, additional findings for the 2018 report include:

• Higher for the overall "composite" Business Confidence Index, up 1.2 points to 51.3.
• Higher for the Anchorage Economy Index, up 8.8 points to 42.5.
• Lower for Gross Sales Index, down 0.9 points to 56.7.
• Lower for Net Profits Index, down 0.7 points to 55.9.
• Lower for Employment Index, down 1.2 point to 51.1.
• Lower for Capital Expenditures Index, down 0.1 points to 50.4.

To compare all indices and their expectations – from 2009 through 2018 – view the data visualization, above.

To view the full report, follow this link.

[Read More: Breaking down the AEDC 3-Year Economic Outlook report (2017)]

[Read More: Alaska will see modest job losses in 2018, new report says]

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