Our first major weather event of the season
While under cloudy rainy skies Thursday Anchorage warms to near 36 degrees.
Storms over the Alaska Range and Southcentral should keep steady precipitation through Thursday morning and into the daylight hours until some of the storm energy weakens Thursday afternoon. As cooler air moves in and keeps snow falling into the warm mid-layers of the atmosphere, those warm layers will start to cool and keep snow falling all the way to ground level. Between the initial warm layer of the mid level layer of the atmosphere, as well as warm surface temperatures then we may only see up to 1" of snow accumulation by the end of the event by Thursday afternoon. The bottom line is that the extended forecast period will be characterized by an active storm pattern with widespread weather impacts across the entire region.
As of 10:45 am on Thursday November 14, 2019 the air is still too warm at the surface and too warm in the mid-levels as well as some of the upper levels of the atmosphere for snow in the Anchorage Bowl. There is still a slight chance but later today we could see a transition to snow. This afternoon as temps start to drop while the warm air diminishes we should switch to freezing rain and to a freezing rain-snow mix.
We are still above freezing at the 2,000 feet to 3,000 feet elevation levels. There is the potential for that rain-snow mix with little in the way of too much snow accumulation. Maybe some slush but not that white fluffy, powdery (or even wet snow) snow that everyone has been hoping for. Here are some early totals though around the area:
1] Richardson Highway 6" of Snow
2] Tonsina 3" of Snow
3] Mat-Su 2" of Snow
4] Kenai 2" of Snow
5] Valdez 5" of Snow
6] Paxson 8" of Snow
1] Big Lake 0.25" of Ice
Early rain for Thursday as we increase our early 32 degree temps to near 36 degrees for a high as our winds blow out of the northeast from 10-15mph. There is a slight chance that some of our rain changes to snow but temps need to drop in the mid-levels of the atmosphere before the storms die off. Showers taper off Thursday evening while we sit under mostly cloudy skies as winds blow out of the north at 10mph.
Friday we will be mostly cloudy while our winds blow out of the northeast at 15 mph as we warm up to 37 degrees. Friday night we will be mostly cloudy as we drop down to 33 degrees overnight with a 50 percent chance of rain showers after Midnight.
Looking ahead, Anchorage will be partly sunny on Saturday with a 50 percent chance of some early snow turning to rain later as we warm up to 36 degrees for a high while winds blow out of the northeast at 15 mph.
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