ANCHORAGE (KTUU) - After six straight days of record-setting warm weather in Anchorage, temperatures that are a little more familiar this time of year are in the forecast. Anchorage will hit 77 degrees on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies.
The ridge of high pressure currently still controls weather around the area. However, it has shifted far enough to the west to allow for the sun to heat up the atmosphere, creating destabilization in the afternoon and evenings. Large scale sinking of air is still in control, so the mountains will be the focus for thunderstorm development.
Mostly sunny on Tuesday in Anchorage with some areas of smoke while we get to a high of 77 degrees. Tuesday night we drop down to 59 degrees while under mostly clear skies with areas of smoke.
Partly cloudy on Wednesday with some areas of smoke while we see a high of 70 degrees. Wednesday night we drop down to 56 degrees while under mostly cloudy skies with some areas of smoke.
Looking ahead, Anchorage will be mostly cloudy on Thursday with a high of 72 degrees with some areas of smoke.
Each consecutive day for the rest of the week should see progressively more activity as the high pressure ridge loses more and more influence. The other facet of the forecast will be an increasing presence of the atmospheric temperature changes on the coastal locations (inversions for the marine layer) currently hanging out over the Gulf, pushing up against the coast as well as up Cook Inlet.
Fire Weather for Southcentral: Thunderstorms will be the main atmospheric feature for the fire weather forecast. Plenty of instability is available, mainly over the mountains. However, with the ridge of high pressure still in control, pinning down if, where and when the influence is weaker to allow storms remains difficult.
The amount of instability makes frequent lightning a possibility once storms do form. They'll likely favor the terrain every evening, but any storm that forms could send gusty outflows over lower elevations.
The facet worth keeping an eye on is the marine layer push up over Cook Inlet in the coming nights. Relative humidity recovery should be nearly complete, with lower daytime high temperatures each consecutive day.
Southwest Fire Weather: The high pressure ridge in place over the Southwest will slowly drift westward by midweek, allowing for a gradual cooling trend through the week. Along with this relief comes an increase in daytime heating of the sun and further destabilization activity as several easterly (out of the east) waves of storm energy move over the southwest. Isolated wet thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday and Wednesday, particularly along the Alaska Range and the Kilbuck Mountains. Monday night's (last nights) atmospheric conditions were suitable for thunderstorm activity.
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